shurain

Harmless stuff is for the weak.

Bayesian vs Frequentist

Nov 18, 14

"But now, what is the difference between Bayesian and Frequentist inference?", the answer is that the frequentist (as I understood it) conditions on theta, while the Bayesian averages over theta. That can be a big difference in settings where theta is high dimensional or where there is otherwise great uncertainty in theta. -- Andrew Gelman

Prediction

Given $X = \{x_1, \ldots, x_n\}$ i.i.d. observations, predict a new i.i.d. data point $\tilde{x}$.

Frequentist Context

Since $\theta$ is an unknown fixed value, it is not a random variable and is something we have to estimate. Therefore, we compute an (point/interval) estimator for the model, given the observed data. Then, we plug it in to the model and predict the new data.

  1. Find $\theta$ by some means of estimation.
  2. Using the estimated $\hat{\theta}$, plug in the $\hat{\theta}$ to the model.
  3. Predict $\tilde{x}$ given the model.

Bayesian Context

Since $\theta$ is a random variable, we can compute the posterior predictive distribution.

$$p(\tilde{x}|X) = \int p(\tilde{x}, \theta|X) d\theta = \int p(\tilde{x}|\theta, X)p(\theta|X)d\theta$$

This is equivalent to computing the expected value of the distribution of new data over the posterior distribution.